The cryptocurrency market in 2025 continues to evolve with increasing institutional participation, technological maturity, and macroeconomic influences. Bitcoin, as the leading digital asset, has experienced significant volatility—trading broadly between $50,000 and $70,000 for extended periods. This wide-ranging fluctuation lacks clear directional momentum, challenging traditional assumptions about bull and bear market cycles. To understand where we stand in this evolving landscape, a deep dive into key on-chain metrics offers valuable insights.
By analyzing long-term data patterns, we can assess whether the current market is approaching a peak—or if the real upward phase has yet to begin.
MVRV Z-Score: Still Below Historical Bull Market Peaks
The MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio is a foundational metric for evaluating whether Bitcoin is overvalued or undervalued. It compares the current market capitalization (Market Value) with the Realized Cap—the sum of all bitcoins valued at their last movement price. This adjustment removes short-term speculative noise and reflects the actual cost basis of holders.
The MVRV Z-Score takes this further by measuring how many standard deviations the current MVRV is from its historical mean. When the Z-Score spikes into the upper (pink) zone, it often signals market tops—such as those seen in late 2017 and 2021. Conversely, dips into the green indicate deep undervaluation, typically marking accumulation phases after bear markets.
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Despite Bitcoin surpassing previous all-time highs in nominal terms during early 2025, the MVRV Z-Score remains strikingly low—less than half of prior cycle peaks. This suggests that while price has risen, widespread euphoria and over-leveraged retail participation have not yet materialized. In essence, the market may still be in a mature accumulation or early growth phase rather than a late-stage bubble.
This divergence could point to structural changes: increased institutional adoption through spot ETFs may be dampening extreme sentiment swings, leading to a more stable, less emotionally driven market.
Puell Multiple: Mining Revenue Still Modest
Another critical indicator of market health is the Puell Multiple, which measures miner revenue relative to its 365-day moving average. The formula is simple:
Puell Multiple = Daily Miner Revenue / 365-Day Average Daily Miner Revenue
Miners sell newly minted BTC to cover operational costs like electricity and hardware. When revenue surges above historical averages (entering red zones), they often increase selling pressure—historically coinciding with market tops. Conversely, low values suggest miner distress but also potential buying opportunities.
In early 2025, the Puell Multiple peaked at just 2.4, far below previous highs exceeding 5–7 during earlier bull runs. This muted response comes despite rising prices and the post-halving supply shock expected to reduce new BTC issuance by 50%.
One reason? Soaring mining costs. According to industry reports, the average cost to mine one BTC in Q2 2025 reached **$51,887**, up sharply from $19,344 in 2023. With electricity, hosting, and hash rate acquisition expenses climbing, many miners operate near breakeven—even as prices hover around $60,000.
This economic squeeze limits their ability to hold or accumulate, reducing potential supply shocks from large-scale miner selling. However, it also means fewer new coins are being brought to market consistently, which could tighten supply over time and support future price appreciation.
200-Week Moving Average: Long-Term Support Holds
PlanB’s 200-week moving average (200WMA) is a cornerstone of long-term Bitcoin analysis. Historically, this level has acted as a powerful floor during bear markets and a springboard for new bull cycles.
From 2018–2019 and again during the pandemic crash in 2020, Bitcoin found strong support at or near the 200WMA before resuming upward momentum. Even during corrections in 2021,每一次 pullback to this level triggered renewed buying interest.
As of mid-2025, Bitcoin remains well above its 200WMA, indicating sustained long-term bullish structure. Recent thermal models suggest that after a 4x increase since the 2022 bottom, historical patterns support potential gains of 7x to 10x from this point forward—implying a plausible next target between $350,000 and $500,000 in the coming years.
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While short-term volatility persists, the persistence of price above this key trendline signals that the broader uptrend remains intact—and that any correction may present a strategic accumulation opportunity.
RHODL Ratio: Speculative Frenzy Cooling Off
The RHODL Ratio, developed by analyst Philip Swift, evaluates investor behavior by comparing the distribution of unspent transaction outputs (UTXOs) across different age bands—particularly short-term holders (1 week – 1 month) versus long-term holders (1–2 years).
A high RHODL Ratio indicates a surge in recent coin movement—often tied to speculative trading and profit-taking. Red zones on the chart have historically preceded major market tops.
Currently, the RHODL Ratio shows a declining trend, suggesting that speculative activity has cooled since early 2025’s price breakout. While short-term traders remain active—keeping volatility elevated—the absence of extreme readings implies that FOMO (fear of missing out) has not reached mania levels.
This subdued speculation contrasts sharply with past cycles and may reflect growing market maturity. With more assets held in regulated ETFs and custodial platforms, there’s less churn among retail wallets—resulting in fewer short-term transfers and more stable on-chain behavior.
LTH/STH Realized Cap Ratio: Is the "Main Wave" Here?
Analyst @Murphychen’s LTH/STH realized cap ratio tracks wealth distribution between long-term holders (LTHs) and short-term holders (STHs). It helps identify shifts in market control:
- LTH dominance (blue line high) = Bear market bottom
- STH dominance (red line high) = Bull market top
- Red crossing above blue = Potential start of "main wave" rally
In March 2025, the STH realized cap briefly overtook LTHs—triggering speculation that a major bull run had begun. However, by April, the red line fell back below blue, indicating that short-term holders failed to sustain control.
This false breakout mirrors events in 2016 when a similar crossover preceded a four-month consolidation. Today’s pattern suggests that while ETF inflows generated temporary excitement and capital rotation, they haven’t yet catalyzed a self-sustaining surge in demand.
Thus, the true "main wave" may still lie ahead, pending broader macro support or renewed institutional inflows.
FAQ: Common Questions About Bitcoin’s 2025 Outlook
Q: Are we already in a bull market?
A: Yes—but likely in an early or intermediate phase. Price has broken prior highs, but key on-chain indicators like MVRV Z-Score and Puell Multiple haven’t reached euphoric levels seen at past peaks.
Q: What does low Puell Multiple mean for Bitcoin price?
A: It suggests miners aren’t experiencing outsized profits, reducing selling pressure. Combined with halving-driven supply constraints, this could set the stage for stronger price momentum later in the cycle.
Q: Can Bitcoin drop below the 200-week MA?
A: Possible—but unlikely without major macro shocks. Historically, breaks below this level signal deep bear markets. Its current strength supports ongoing bullish sentiment.
Q: Why isn’t RHODL Ratio spiking if prices are high?
A: Reduced retail trading activity and increased ETF holdings mean fewer short-term transactions. The market is maturing—less speculative churn doesn’t mean weak fundamentals.
Q: Does ETF adoption change traditional cycle models?
A: Yes. Spot ETFs bring steady institutional inflows, altering supply-demand dynamics and potentially smoothing out traditional boom-bust patterns.
Q: When might the next major rally begin?
A: If history holds, sustained moves above key thresholds—like confirmed STH dominance or MVRV Z > 3—could signal the start of a powerful upward leg within 6–18 months.
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In conclusion, while Bitcoin has broken previous price records in 2025, multiple chain-based indicators suggest the market has not yet reached peak bullishness. Structural shifts—including spot ETFs, rising mining costs, and changing holder behavior—are reshaping traditional cycle dynamics. Rather than following old scripts, this cycle appears more resilient—and potentially longer-lasting—than those before it.