朱光耀谈加密货币与数字经济发展：直面挑战，把握未来机遇

The rapid evolution of digital technology is reshaping the global economic landscape, and at the heart of this transformation lies the rise of digital currency, blockchain innovation, and cryptocurrency. Former Vice Minister of Finance Zhu Guangyao delivered a thought-provoking speech at the 2024 Tsinghua Wudaokou Chief Economist Forum, offering deep insights into how China can navigate the complex terrain of digital economy infrastructure, especially amid intensifying U.S.-China competition.

Zhu emphasized that the world is now entering the era of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, driven primarily by breakthroughs in artificial intelligence. Unlike previous industrial revolutions where China played a peripheral role, today it stands firmly in the first tier of global innovation, alongside the United States.

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The Strategic Importance of Digital Infrastructure

Digital infrastructure forms the backbone of modern economies. On the surface, this includes everyday devices like smartphones. But behind the scenes, critical components such as data centers, undersea fiber-optic cables, and high-performance computing systems are what truly power the digital age.

Zhu highlighted a striking statistic: over 99% of global data traffic flows through undersea cables. These transoceanic links are not just technological marvels—they are geopolitical assets. Currently, the United States hosts 17 of the world’s top 20 supercomputing centers, while China has three. Europe and Japan have none.

Despite China's strong engineering capabilities in building digital infrastructure, U.S. policies such as the Clean Network Initiative aim to restrict collaboration between American and Chinese tech firms—particularly in sensitive areas like undersea cable development. This growing technological decoupling poses serious risks.

If the U.S. and China were to fully disconnect their digital networks, Zhu warned that the U.S. would suffer a 12% drop in data exchange volume, while China’s share would fall from 9% to 7%. Both nations would face significant economic consequences.

More alarmingly, the International Monetary Fund estimates that a bifurcated global tech ecosystem could result in a loss of $7 trillion to $12 trillion in global GDP—equivalent to 7%–12% of last year’s total world economic output (approximately $105 trillion). No country can afford such a collapse alone.

Cryptocurrency: From Pariah to Policy Priority

One of the most transformative elements of the digital economy is cryptocurrency. Once dismissed as a tool for illicit finance, it has undergone a dramatic shift in perception—especially in the United States.

For years, U.S. regulators viewed cryptocurrencies with suspicion, citing concerns over money laundering, terrorism financing, and market volatility. However, recent policy developments signal a major reversal.

In a landmark move, the Republican Party included pro-crypto language in its official platform, with former President Donald Trump declaring, “We must embrace cryptocurrency, or China will replace us.” His running mate, J.D. Vance—a venture capitalist with substantial crypto holdings—further underscores this strategic pivot.

Even more telling is the Biden administration’s actions. In January 2024, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved 11 Bitcoin ETFs for listing on major exchanges like NYSE, Nasdaq, and CME. By July, Ethereum ETFs followed suit—marking an implicit recognition of cryptocurrency’s legitimacy by the federal government.

This bipartisan shift reflects a broader understanding: cryptocurrency is no longer fringe—it is foundational to digital sovereignty and financial innovation.

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Global Momentum: From G7 to BRICS

The momentum isn’t limited to the West. In September 2024, Russian President Vladimir Putin officially approved cryptocurrency regulations. South Africa, Brazil, and India are also advancing national frameworks for digital asset integration.

Meanwhile, emerging markets within the BRICS bloc are exploring decentralized finance (DeFi) and cross-border digital settlements using blockchain infrastructure. This global trend underscores a critical point: the digital currency race is no longer hypothetical—it’s already underway.

China once led in cryptocurrency mining and blockchain applications before 2015. But stringent domestic regulations—driven by fears over financial stability and capital flight—have caused a strategic retreat. While these concerns are valid, Zhu argues they must be balanced with realism.

“We must face problems head-on,” Zhu stated, referencing a key directive from China’s Central Politburo meeting. “Regulation doesn’t mean isolation. We need to study international developments and adapt.”

Bridging the Innovation Gap

Zhu draws a parallel between China’s current position in cryptocurrency and its historical experience with semiconductor development—both are deeply intertwined with national technological self-reliance.

The core issue isn’t just technical capability; it’s ecosystem participation. By legally restricting cryptocurrency activities, China limits its ability to shape global standards, attract talent, and foster homegrown innovation in blockchain-based financial services.

Underground trading still occurs, but without legal clarity or institutional support, China cannot harness cryptocurrency for productive economic use—such as smart contracts, tokenized assets, or decentralized identity systems.

As Zhu noted: “Even if you ban it, people will find ways around it—but you lose control over its development.”

This creates a paradox: while aiming to reduce risk, overregulation may actually increase systemic vulnerability by pushing activity into unregulated spaces.

FAQs: Understanding Cryptocurrency’s Role in the Digital Economy

Q: Is cryptocurrency essential for digital economic development?
A: Yes. Cryptocurrency serves as both a medium of exchange and a foundational layer for blockchain-based applications in finance, supply chain, and identity verification.

Q: Can governments regulate cryptocurrency without stifling innovation?
A: Absolutely. Countries like Singapore and Switzerland show that clear regulatory frameworks can coexist with vibrant crypto ecosystems.

Q: Why did the U.S. reverse its stance on cryptocurrency?
A: Geopolitical competition. With China advancing in digital currency (e.g., e-CNY), and private-sector innovation booming globally, the U.S. sees crypto as vital to maintaining financial leadership.

Q: Does banning crypto mining eliminate risks?
A: Not entirely. Bans may reduce domestic energy consumption and speculative trading but often drive operations offshore and limit domestic technological advancement.

Q: What can China do now to catch up?
A: Reassess policy with a focus on research, pilot programs, and international cooperation—especially in areas like CBDC interoperability and blockchain standards.

Q: Are Bitcoin ETFs a sign of mainstream adoption?
A: Definitely. ETF approvals allow institutional investors to access crypto markets safely, signaling regulatory acceptance and boosting market maturity.

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Conclusion: A Call for Strategic Engagement

Zhu Guangyao’s message is clear: the digital economy cannot be led from the sidelines. Whether it’s undersea cables or blockchain protocols, infrastructure defines influence.

Cryptocurrency is no longer just about speculation—it’s about technological sovereignty, financial inclusion, and global standard-setting. While risks exist, they are manageable through intelligent regulation—not blanket prohibition.

As the Fourth Industrial Revolution accelerates, nations must choose: lead, follow, or be left behind.

China has the talent, market scale, and technological base to be a leader—but only if it chooses to re-engage strategically with the evolving digital asset landscape.

The horse has already left the gate. The question is no longer whether to act—but how fast we can ride forward.

Core Keywords: cryptocurrency, digital economy, blockchain, digital currency, Bitcoin ETF, financial innovation, digital infrastructure, decentralized finance