Ethereum (ETH), the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, has entered a critical phase in its long-term price cycle. After a 15% decline from its 2024 high and a prolonged consolidation within a symmetrical triangle pattern lasting over 1,150 days, the market is now at a pivotal juncture. While recent price action shows bearish momentum, technical analysis suggests this could be the final leg of a multi-year correction—potentially setting the stage for a powerful breakout toward new all-time highs.
This article explores the current technical landscape of Ethereum, analyzes key support and resistance levels, evaluates long-term wave patterns, and outlines what traders and investors should watch for in the coming weeks.
Ethereum’s Recent Price Decline
Ethereum reached its 2024 peak on December 16 at $4,107—still 16% below its all-time high of $4,868 set in November 2021. Despite a brief recovery on December 20, characterized by a strong bullish wick that reaffirmed an ascending parallel channel, the rally failed to gain sustained momentum.
Since then, ETH has formed a lower high and begun a steady downward move. The price is now testing key support levels, with growing signs of bearish pressure on the daily chart. Most notably, Ethereum is forming a bearish candlestick pattern beneath the crucial $3,290 horizontal support level—a development that increases the likelihood of further downside.
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Technical indicators are also aligning with this bearish outlook:
- The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is declining and remains below the neutral 50 level, indicating weakening momentum.
- The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is negative and trending lower, with no sign of bullish divergence.
- Volume patterns show limited buying interest during pullbacks, suggesting weak accumulation.
If Ethereum fails to reclaim $3,290, the next major support zone lies between $2,900 and $2,826—the midpoint of the long-term ascending channel and a key Fibonacci retracement level.
A drop to this range would mark a correction of approximately 15% from recent highs but could represent the final shakeout before a significant upward move.
The Symmetrical Triangle: A Sign of Imminent Breakout?
One of the most compelling aspects of Ethereum’s long-term chart structure is the formation of a symmetrical triangle on the weekly timeframe. This pattern has been developing since ETH’s all-time high in late 2021 and spans more than three years—over 1,150 days of consolidation.
In technical analysis, symmetrical triangles are continuation patterns that typically resolve in the direction of the prior trend—especially when they occur after strong bull runs. Given that Ethereum’s rally began in November 2018 and remains fundamentally intact, this triangle likely represents Wave 4 of a larger five-wave impulse pattern.
Historically, similar patterns have preceded explosive breakouts. For example, XRP exhibited a nearly identical consolidation before surging over 400% in 2024. If Ethereum follows a comparable path, a breakout from this triangle could propel ETH toward $7,432, aligning with the 1.618 Fibonacci extension of the previous corrective phase.
However, before such a move can occur, the final leg of the correction must play out.
Final Leg of the Correction: Target Zone Identified
According to Elliott Wave theory and Fibonacci analysis, Ethereum is likely completing sub-wave C of its broader corrective structure. This final downward phase is expected to reach the $2,826–$2,866 range—a zone that satisfies multiple technical conditions:
- It aligns with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the entire upward move from 2018 to 2021.
- It corresponds to the mid-channel support of the long-term ascending trend line.
- It mirrors the length of sub-wave A, creating symmetry within the correction.
Reaching this zone would fulfill the requirements for a complete and healthy pullback, clearing out weak hands and setting up strong institutional accumulation.
Once this final drop concludes, Ethereum could initiate Wave 5—the last phase of its bull cycle—potentially driving prices to new record highs with strong volume and momentum.
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What to Watch for in Early 2025
While the short-term outlook remains bearish, several key levels will determine whether Ethereum is truly preparing for a historic rally:
- Immediate Resistance: $3,290 – A daily close above this level would invalidate the near-term bearish structure.
- Key Support: $2,826–$2,866 – This zone must hold as a base for any meaningful reversal.
- Breakout Confirmation: A weekly close above the upper boundary of the symmetrical triangle (currently near $4,500) would confirm the start of Wave 5.
- On-Chain Metrics: Watch for increased wallet activity, rising exchange outflows, and growing staking participation—signs of accumulating demand.
Investors should also monitor macroeconomic factors such as Federal Reserve policy shifts, regulatory clarity on crypto assets, and institutional adoption trends—all of which could accelerate ETH’s next leg higher.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: Is Ethereum’s downtrend over?
A: Not yet. While this may be the final phase of correction, Ethereum needs to complete its drop toward $2,826–$2,866 before a sustainable reversal can begin.
Q: Can Ethereum reach new all-time highs in 2025?
A: Yes—provided it completes its correction and breaks out from the symmetrical triangle. A target of $7,432 is plausible under an Elliott Wave five scenario.
Q: What is the significance of the symmetrical triangle pattern?
A: It indicates prolonged consolidation before a breakout. Historically, such patterns lead to moves equal to the height of the triangle when resolved.
Q: How does this correction compare to past cycles?
A: Similar in structure to Bitcoin’s 2018–2020 bear market and XRP’s 2020–2024 range. Long consolidations often precede massive rallies.
Q: Should I sell Ethereum now?
A: Timing the bottom is difficult. Consider dollar-cost averaging or waiting for confirmed reversal signals like bullish divergence or channel breakout.
Q: What triggers the next bull run for ETH?
A: A combination of technical completion, macro tailwinds (rate cuts), Layer-2 growth, and increased DeFi/NFT activity could spark renewed momentum.
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Conclusion
Ethereum is navigating one of the most decisive phases in its history. Though currently facing downward pressure and potential further losses of up to 15%, the broader technical structure suggests we may be witnessing the final chapter of a multi-year correction.
The convergence of Elliott Wave patterns, Fibonacci retracements, and historical precedent points to a high-probability scenario: after one last dip into the $2,800–$2,900 range, Ethereum could launch into its fifth and final wave upward—possibly exceeding $7,000 in the process.
For patient investors and technically savvy traders alike, this moment offers both risk and opportunity. By understanding the underlying market structure and monitoring key confirmation signals, market participants can position themselves ahead of what might become one of crypto’s most significant rallies yet.
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