Dogecoin (DOGE) remains entrenched in a bear market, having shed nearly 70% of its value from its previous year’s peak. Despite this prolonged downturn, on-chain data reveals a critical shift: major holders—commonly known as whales—are actively offloading their holdings. Yet, amid the selling pressure, some crypto analysts remain optimistic, citing technical patterns that suggest a potential rebound. So, what should investors make of this conflicting narrative? Is now the time to buy DOGE, or is the worst yet to come?
Whale Activity Signals Capitulation
On-chain analytics platforms like Santiment indicate that Dogecoin whales have been steadily selling their positions since early April. This sustained outflow has accelerated in recent weeks, with billions of DOGE tokens being dumped into the market. Such behavior often signals capitulation—a psychological turning point where large investors abandon hope of a recovery and liquidate at a loss.
Supporting this view, the Network Realized Profit/Loss (NPL) metric for Dogecoin has plummeted to -107.3 million and has remained negative since February. When NPL is in negative territory, it means more tokens are being moved at a loss than at a profit. This widespread loss realization underscores the bearish sentiment currently dominating the DOGE ecosystem.
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However, history shows that such capitulation phases often precede major market reversals. While painful in the short term, these periods can lay the foundation for the next bull run by washing out weak hands and resetting investor expectations.
Bullish Forecast: Analyst Predicts 130% Surge
Despite the grim on-chain data, not all voices are bearish. Olivier Maximus, a well-known anonymous crypto trader, recently shared an optimistic outlook on X (formerly Twitter). While acknowledging that Dogecoin is still in a downtrend, he emphasized a key technical condition that could trigger a reversal: the formation of a higher low.
In technical analysis, a higher low indicates strengthening buyer support, suggesting that selling pressure is waning. If Dogecoin establishes such a pattern, Maximus believes it could unlock a bullish breakout targeting $0.35—a staggering 130% increase from current levels.
Another analyst, Steph is Crypto—followed by over 150,000 users—has an even more aggressive forecast. He predicts Dogecoin could surge to $1 within the next 2 to 3 months, citing the weekly chart’s structure of higher highs and higher lows. This long-term bullish formation suggests underlying strength, even as short-term price action remains weak.
Technical Analysis: Inverse Head and Shoulders & Double Bottom
Zooming into the daily chart, several bullish reversal patterns are emerging:
- Inverse Head and Shoulders (H&S): Dogecoin has formed a textbook inverse H&S pattern, one of the most reliable signals of a trend reversal. The left shoulder, head, and right shoulder are clearly visible, with the neckline around $0.2047—the high point from March 26.
- **Double Bottom at $0.1425**: The price has twice tested the $0.1425 level before bouncing back, forming a classic double-bottom pattern. This further reinforces support at this zone and increases the likelihood of a rebound.
A confirmed breakout above the descending trendline and the 50-day moving average—which has acted as strong resistance—would validate these bullish signals. Such a move could propel DOGE toward the $0.25–$0.35 range in the coming weeks.
Conversely, a breakdown below $0.1425 would invalidate both patterns and open the door to further downside. In that scenario, the next major psychological support lies at **$0.10**, a level not seen since late 2023.
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Why Are Whales Selling While Analysts Stay Bullish?
The divergence between whale behavior and analyst sentiment may seem contradictory—but it’s not uncommon in crypto markets. Whales often sell during downturns to lock in profits or reduce exposure amid uncertainty. Their actions reflect risk management rather than a lack of faith in long-term potential.
Meanwhile, technical analysts focus on price structure and market psychology. The presence of multiple bullish patterns suggests that buyer interest is building. When combined with potential catalysts—such as renewed social media attention or broader market recovery—these setups can attract new capital and reverse bearish momentum.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
Q: Can Dogecoin recover even if whales are selling?
A: Yes. Whale sell-offs often occur during market bottoms. While they increase short-term pressure, they can also accelerate capitulation—a necessary phase before a strong recovery.
Q: What technical patterns support a Dogecoin price rebound?
A: Dogecoin has formed both an inverse head and shoulders pattern and a double bottom near $0.1425—two historically reliable bullish reversal signals.
Q: Why are Dogecoin whales dumping their holdings?
A: Whales typically sell during extended downtrends to cut losses or reallocate capital. The nearly 70% drop from all-time highs has likely triggered profit-taking and risk reduction.
Q: What price could Dogecoin reach if bullish patterns confirm?
A: Analysts project targets between $0.35 and $1. A breakout above $0.2047 could initiate a rapid ascent toward these levels.
Q: What would cancel the bullish outlook for DOGE?
A: A close below $0.1425 would invalidate the double bottom and inverse H&S pattern, potentially pushing DOGE toward $0.10.
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Final Thoughts: Risk vs. Reward in DOGE
Dogecoin stands at a pivotal crossroads. On one hand, persistent whale selling and negative realized profit/loss data reflect deep market pessimism. On the other, emerging technical patterns and analyst forecasts suggest that a turnaround may be imminent.
For investors, this presents a high-risk, high-reward scenario. Entering now requires conviction in technical analysis and patience through volatility. A confirmed breakout above key resistance levels could unlock substantial gains, while a breakdown below support demands strict risk management.
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Whether Dogecoin rallies to $0.35 or retests $0.10, one thing is clear: the next few weeks will be decisive for its trajectory. Monitoring on-chain flows, volume shifts, and key technical levels will be essential for navigating this volatile phase.