The current Bitcoin (BTC) price momentum suggests a potential climb toward $90,000, but market participants remain uncertain whether the cryptocurrency can sustain levels beyond this key psychological and technical threshold. After a rocky start to the year marked by back-to-back monthly declines of 17.39% in February and 2.3% in March, Bitcoin has regained footing in Q2, posting a 3.77% gain in April. Despite hitting a year-to-date low near $74,500, the asset is now significantly closer to $90,000 than to a new range bottom—fueling optimism among bulls.
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Higher Time Frame Breakout Signals Bullish Momentum
Bitcoin has achieved its first major structural breakout on higher time frame (HTF) charts in 2025, reinforcing a bullish narrative that could pave the way for further upside. A confirmed breakout on weekly and monthly timeframes often signals strong institutional and long-term investor conviction. This shift in market structure has injected fresh optimism into the ecosystem, with traders eyeing $90,000 as the next major resistance zone.
However, several underlying market dynamics suggest that even if Bitcoin reaches $90,000, it may struggle to maintain those levels without broader, sustainable demand.
The Role of Spot Volume vs. Leveraged Trading
One of the most critical factors limiting Bitcoin’s ability to sustain a rally beyond $90,000 is the imbalance between spot and derivatives market activity. According to market observations, BTC-USDT futures leverage has dropped by approximately 50%, indicating a cooling in speculative trading behavior. While reduced leverage is generally a healthy sign for long-term stability, it also highlights that the current price movement isn't being driven by broad-based spot demand.
Instead, the rally appears to be largely leveraged-driven, as confirmed by CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn. This means that short-term traders using margin and futures contracts are fueling price action rather than long-term investors deploying capital through spot purchases.
Axel Adler Jr., a Bitcoin researcher, noted that cumulative net buy volume surged to $800 million on April 11—an indicator often associated with aggressive buying pressure. This influx coincided with a rapid price increase from $78,000 to $85,000 within just three days, aligning with historical patterns where high net buying precedes upward momentum.
Yet, this pattern raises concerns: past rallies built on leveraged positions have often led to sharp reversals once liquidation cascades begin.
Spot Demand Remains Weak
Despite rising prices, Bitcoin’s 30-day apparent demand—a metric that measures net inflows into exchanges minus outflows—has not turned convincingly positive. Apparent demand reflects real buying pressure from spot traders. When this metric remains flat or negative, it suggests that holders are not aggressively accumulating, and price gains may lack foundational support.
Historically, after Bitcoin hits local lows, apparent demand tends to consolidate sideways for extended periods. This phase often corresponds with range-bound price action, where upward momentum stalls despite bullish sentiment. Without a sustained shift toward net positive spot inflows, the current rally risks becoming another short-lived speculative wave rather than the start of a new bull leg.
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Liquidation Clusters Pose a Major Risk
Another key factor that could cap Bitcoin’s upside near $90,000 is the presence of dense **liquidation clusters** in the futures market. According to CoinGlass data, approximately **$6.5 billion in short positions** are vulnerable to liquidation if Bitcoin reaches $90,035—centered around a pivot point of $85,100.
Such concentrations of short leverage often act as magnets for price movement. Traders anticipate these zones and position accordingly, sometimes triggering a "stop hunt" where the market briefly spikes to trigger liquidations before reversing.
Conversely, if Bitcoin were to drop to $80,071, about **$4.86 billion in long positions** would face liquidation. These dual clusters create a high-risk environment where price volatility could spike dramatically in either direction.
While liquidation zones don’t dictate long-term trends, they can lead to whipsaw conditions—rapid swings that trap both bulls and bears. This dynamic makes $80,000–$90,000 a critical battleground for market control.
Why $90K Could Be a Trap Zone
Given the confluence of technical resistance, weak spot demand, and massive open interest in leveraged positions, many analysts believe $90,000 could function as a trap zone rather than a breakout point. A trap zone occurs when price reaches a level that appears bullish on the surface—triggering FOMO buying—but lacks structural support to sustain higher prices.
In such scenarios:
- Late-entry buyers absorb selling pressure from earlier entrants.
- Profit-taking intensifies as targets are met.
- Leveraged longs get liquidated on any sign of reversal.
- Sentiment shifts rapidly from euphoric to fearful.
This cycle has played out repeatedly in previous cycles, particularly during parabolic phases driven more by emotion than fundamentals.
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Core Keywords
- Bitcoin price prediction
- BTC rally
- $90,000 Bitcoin
- Bitcoin liquidation clusters
- Spot vs futures demand
- Leveraged trading risks
- Market structure breakout
- Apparent demand Bitcoin
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: Can Bitcoin break above $90,000?
A: Technically, yes—but sustainability depends on whether spot demand supports the move. Without strong accumulation from long-term investors, any breakout may be short-lived.
Q: Why is $90,000 considered a resistance level?
A: It’s both a psychological round number and an area with dense short liquidations. Markets often stall or reverse at such magnet zones due to automated trading and stop-loss clustering.
Q: What causes leveraged rallies in Bitcoin?
A: Futures trading with high margin amplifies price movements. When many traders use leverage to go long, even small price increases can trigger cascading buys—until reversals cause mass liquidations.
Q: How do liquidation clusters affect price?
A: They create volatility hotspots. Traders and algorithms anticipate these levels, leading to sharp moves designed to trigger stops before reversing direction—commonly known as "stop hunts."
Q: Is low spot volume a bearish sign?
A: Not immediately bearish, but concerning for trend durability. Sustained rallies require real buying pressure from spot markets; otherwise, prices rely too heavily on speculative futures activity.
Q: What should traders watch for confirmation of a true breakout?
A: Key indicators include rising spot volume, positive apparent demand, declining leverage, and price holding above $90,000 for multiple days without triggering large-scale liquidations.
In summary, while Bitcoin’s path toward $90,000 appears increasingly plausible due to improved market structure and short-term momentum, the lack of robust spot market participation and the presence of massive liquidation zones suggest caution. The coming weeks will be critical in determining whether this rally evolves into a sustainable bull run—or becomes another textbook example of a leveraged trap.