The past week in the cryptocurrency markets offered a mix of consolidation, resilience, and selective strength across major digital assets. Bitcoin (BTC), after another failed attempt to break above the psychological $100,000 mark, settled into a tighter trading range. Meanwhile, Ethereum (ETH) and select altcoins demonstrated notable momentum, hinting at shifting market dynamics beneath the surface. This weekly recap dives into key price movements, volatility trends, and underlying market structure to help you navigate the evolving landscape.
Key Metrics (November 25 – December 2, 2025, 4:00 PM Hong Kong Time)
- Bitcoin (BTC/USD) declined by 2.4%, moving from $98,200 to $95,900
- Ethereum (ETH/USD) rose 6.7%, climbing from $3,410 to $3,640
- BTC ATM Implied Volatility for December year-end dropped 4.2 points, from 60.0% to 55.8%
- BTC 25-Delta Skew remained flat at 4.9, indicating stable near-term risk sentiment
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Price Action & Technical Outlook
Bitcoin appears to have reached a local peak in its recent rally. Despite continued strong buying from institutional players like MicroStrategy (MSTR), upward momentum has stalled. This aligns with our core thesis: the market has likely passed its primary bullish phase and is now entering a period of stabilization before the next significant move.
We maintain that any near-term correction in BTC is likely to be moderate, supported by strong demand in the $85,000–$90,000 range. The presence of persistent institutional accumulation suggests downside risks are cushioned in the short term. As a result, we expect lower realized volatility over the coming weeks.
However, a decisive breakout—either above $100,000** or below **$90,000—could trigger a sharp increase in volatility and redefine the trajectory for early 2026.
- A sustained move above $100,000 could accelerate bullish momentum, potentially pushing BTC toward **$110,000–$115,000** earlier than anticipated—possibly before January or February 2026.
- Conversely, a breakdown below $90,000 might open the door to a deeper correction. The next major support level lies around **$85,000, with further downside risk toward $76,000** if selling pressure intensifies.
This range-bound environment underscores the importance of monitoring key technical levels and order book depth.
Market Themes & Macro Context
Last week’s market activity was relatively subdued, influenced by the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday and reduced institutional participation. Broader financial markets showed strength, with the S&P 500 climbing to 6,000, reflecting resilient investor confidence.
In the fixed income space, U.S. Treasury yields continued a gradual retreat from recent highs following the confirmation of Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary. This macro backdrop—moderating yields amid equity strength—has created a cautiously optimistic environment for risk assets, including digital currencies.
Bitcoin once again tested the $100,000 resistance but failed to sustain the breakout, triggering a pullback to **$90,800. However, this dip found strong buying interest, reinforcing the notion that $90,000 remains a critical support zone. Price has since rebounded into the **$95,000–$96,000 range, indicating renewed balance between buyers and sellers.
With much of MicroStrategy’s recent accumulation now absorbed by the market, BTC is trading in a more equilibrium state. This suggests that future price movements will depend more on macro catalysts and broader market sentiment than isolated whale activity.
Altcoin Momentum Gains Ground
While Bitcoin consolidated, several altcoins delivered impressive performance:
- Ethereum (ETH) saw renewed demand as spot ETH inflows into ETFs picked up pace. This momentum helped ETHUSD briefly breach $3,700, signaling growing institutional appetite for Ethereum beyond Bitcoin.
- Ripple (XRP) surged nearly 50% during the week, driven by positive regulatory developments and increased trading volume. This standout performance highlights how sector-specific catalysts can drive outsized returns even in a sideways BTC market.
These movements suggest that capital is beginning to rotate into high-conviction altcoin narratives—a potential early signal of broadening market strength.
ATM Implied Volatility Trends
After the sharp dip to $90,800 and subsequent recovery to $97,000, Bitcoin’s price action began to stabilize. This consolidation has placed downward pressure on both implied volatility (IV) and realized volatility (RV).
The decline in December ATM IV—from 60.0% to 55.8%—reflects reduced fear of extreme moves in the near term. It also suggests that many traders may have closed or adjusted their year-end volatility positions following the pullback.
As we approach the holiday season and year-end, we expect implied volatility to face continued downward pressure. This typically leads to a steeper volatility term structure—where front-month contracts trade at lower levels compared to longer-dated options.
However, an interesting development is the market’s current pricing of volatility between year-end and January 2026. The implied volatility for this period is already at extremely elevated levels, suggesting traders are bracing for significant movement early next year.
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If Bitcoin remains range-bound during this window—say between $92,000 and $98,000—this rich pricing may become unsustainable and could unwind rapidly.
Skew & Kurtosis: Sentiment and Tail Risk
The 25-delta skew briefly dipped during the drop from $99,800 to $90,800, reflecting increased demand for downside protection. However, as price rebounded strongly off support, skew quickly recovered and ended the week unchanged at 4.9.
This resilience indicates that while traders reacted defensively to the drop, they did not fundamentally shift their long-term risk outlook. The lack of sustained skew expansion suggests confidence in the $90,000 floor.
Meanwhile, kurtosis—a measure of tail risk and probability of extreme moves—gradually declined throughout the week. This aligns with lower overall volatility and persistent selling pressure in out-of-the-money options (particularly wing-based call spreads).
The declining kurtosis signals that the market currently assigns lower probability to black swan events in the near term. Combined with stable skew, this reflects a sentiment of cautious optimism: investors expect continued upside in BTC but at a slower, more measured pace.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: Why did Bitcoin fail to break above $100,000 again?
A: Repeated rejection at $100,000 suggests strong resistance from profit-taking and option-related selling pressure. Until there’s a significant new catalyst—such as ETF inflows acceleration or macro easing—this level may remain a psychological and technical barrier.
Q: Is low volatility bullish or bearish for Bitcoin?
A: Low volatility often precedes major moves. While it suggests consolidation now, it can build energy for a sharp breakout later—especially if triggered by unexpected news or macro shifts.
Q: What does stable skew mean for traders?
A: Stable skew indicates balanced risk sentiment. Traders aren’t rushing to hedge downside risk, which can be a sign of underlying confidence in price support levels.
Q: Could Ethereum outperform Bitcoin in early 2026?
A: Yes—especially if ETH ETFs see sustained inflows and network upgrades drive developer activity. The recent price strength is an early signal of renewed interest.
Q: How should I position during low-volatility periods?
A: Consider defined-risk strategies like iron condors or calendar spreads. These benefit from time decay while protecting against sudden moves.
Q: What’s the significance of year-end volatility pricing?
A: Markets are pricing in high volatility for January 2026. If BTC remains range-bound, this premium could collapse—creating opportunities for volatility sellers.
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Final Thoughts
Bitcoin’s current phase is one of digestion and balance. While upward momentum has paused, strong support at $90,800 reaffirms underlying demand. With implied volatility cooling and altcoins showing strength, the market is setting up for a potential reacceleration in early 2026—either upward toward new highs or downward if macro conditions deteriorate.
Stay alert for breakout signals above $100,000 or breakdowns below $90,888. The next major move may not be far away.
Wishing you a successful week ahead.