The cryptocurrency market continues to evolve, but seasoned investors know that timing and strategy are critical to long-term success. One widely discussed mantra—"sell in May and go away"—has gained traction among traders, especially as macroeconomic conditions shift. But why is this timing so important? And more importantly, how long does it really take to earn your first substantial profit in crypto? Let’s explore the realities behind market cycles, investor psychology, and strategic entry and exit points.
The Myth of Institutional Influx Post-Upgrade
After Ethereum’s Shanghai upgrade, many speculated that institutional investors would flood into ETH staking. With only about 15% of the total supply staked, it seemed like a golden opportunity. However, this optimism may be misplaced for several key reasons:
- Regulatory risks in the U.S.: A growing wave of crypto regulation means institutions could face legal challenges. Participating in ETH staking might be classified as offering unregistered securities, exposing firms to fines and compliance issues.
- Unfavorable risk-reward ratio: While ETH staking offers an annual yield of around 3.75% in ETH terms, the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yields approximately 3.43% in stable USD. Given ETH’s significantly higher volatility compared to government bonds, the risk-adjusted return is far less attractive.
- Institutions don’t play catch-up: Financial institutions typically operate at the top of the food chain. They rarely buy at relatively high levels just to absorb retail sell-offs—a behavior that contradicts standard market dynamics.
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Declining Network Activity: A Warning Sign
A closer look at Ethereum’s on-chain activity reveals a troubling trend: declining ecosystem vitality. Gas fee consumption—a proxy for network usage—has dropped significantly. The main drivers now fall into two categories:
- Trading platforms: Uniswap, OpenSea, and stablecoin transfers.
- Airdrop farming: Layer 2 protocols, XEN, and Blur.
Compare this to 2021’s explosive growth, where new projects and DeFi innovations fueled widespread excitement. Today, daily active unique wallets hover around 50,000, many of which are likely bot-generated or sybil accounts. This level of engagement is insufficient to support the grand vision of Web3 transforming global systems.
With limited organic demand and increasing sell pressure from staked ETH unlocking post-Shanghai, the ETH/BTC exchange rate could reach new lows—a sign many overlook when focusing solely on price in USD.
No Major Bull Run Expected in 2025: Prepare for Downturn
Let’s be clear: 2025 is not shaping up to be a bull market year. The U.S. economy is transitioning from stagflation to recession, a phase historically unfavorable for risk assets like cryptocurrencies.
Even if Bitcoin breaks above $30,000 or even $35,000, these levels may represent a bull trap—a temporary rally designed to lure in latecomers before a deeper correction. This reinforces the classic trading rule: sell in May.
This adage, rooted in traditional financial markets, suggests that summer months often see lower liquidity and increased volatility. In crypto, where sentiment drives momentum, exiting or reducing exposure during this period can protect gains and preserve capital for better opportunities ahead.
Potential Gainers: POW Coins Supported by U.S. Legislation
Despite broader headwinds, certain segments may still see upward movement—particularly proof-of-work (PoW) cryptocurrencies backed by U.S. House initiatives. Lawmakers have shown renewed interest in supporting energy-efficient mining and decentralization through PoW networks.
Here are some notable PoW coins worth watching:
Dogecoin (DOGE)
Originally created as a meme, Dogecoin gained legitimacy thanks to its vibrant community and high-profile endorsements. Unlike Bitcoin, it has no supply cap, making it more inflationary but also more accessible for microtransactions.
Litecoin (LTC)
Often called "digital silver" to Bitcoin’s "gold," Litecoin was one of the earliest altcoins and shares many technical similarities with BTC. Its fast block generation and low fees make it ideal for everyday transactions.
Ethereum Classic (ETC)
Born from the 2016 DAO hack aftermath, ETC maintained the original Ethereum blockchain’s PoW consensus. After ETH transitioned to proof-of-stake (PoS), many miners migrated to ETC, reinforcing its mining ecosystem.
Monero (XMR)
Focused on privacy and untraceability, Monero uses the CryptoNote protocol to obscure transaction details. While regulatory scrutiny remains a challenge, its strong emphasis on user anonymity keeps it relevant in privacy-centric use cases.
Bitcoin Cash (BCH)
A 2017 hard fork of Bitcoin, BCH aimed to improve scalability by increasing block size. It maintains a fixed supply of 21 million and is scheduled for its next halving event in April 2024—an event often associated with bullish sentiment.
Dash
Known for its masternode architecture and instant transaction features, Dash enables fast, secure payments both online and in physical stores. Its network currently supports over 4,100 masternodes globally.
While these are established projects, dismissing them as “old coins” ignores the potential impact of legislative support. When policy aligns with technology, even mature assets can experience renewed momentum.
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How Long Does It Take to Earn Your First Crypto Fortune?
One of the most common questions newcomers ask is: how long will it take to make my first big win in crypto?
The answer isn’t straightforward—but a realistic timeframe is around two years. Any longer might feel unrewarding; any shorter assumes unsustainable luck.
Consider this scenario:
- Starting capital: $20,000
- Target: $500,000–$1 million (first real “bucket” of wealth)
- This goal is achievable without being a technical expert—just understanding basic buy/sell principles helps.
Look back at the last cycle:
- Bitcoin bottomed at ~$3,800 during the March 2020 crash.
- Peaked at ~$69,000 in late 2021—a nearly 18x return.
- Ethereum rose from $88 to $4,800—a 54x surge.
While catching the full move from bottom to top is rare, consistent participation across phases yields strong results.
Key Principle: Patience Over Impulse
“Patience waiting for opportunity beats impulsive trading every time.”
Markets today resemble a "monkey market"—erratic, unpredictable swings without clear trends. With Ethereum rebounding from $900 to nearly $1,800 recently, short-term gains are possible. But chasing every bounce risks capital erosion.
Instead:
- Focus on preserving principal.
- Take partial profits during rallies.
- Wait for clearer macro signals before redeploying.
Strategic Phases of a Market Cycle
Successful investing requires phase-awareness:
- Early Bull Phase: Led by Bitcoin and Ethereum. These large caps provide stability and momentum.
- Mid-Cycle: Mid-cap altcoins begin catching up as confidence grows.
- Late Cycle: Low-cap “meme” or speculative coins explode—this is when retail FOMO peaks.
- Downturn: The cycle resets.
A smart strategy:
- Dollar-cost average into BTC and ETH early.
- Rotate into promising altcoins mid-cycle.
- Switch to short-term trades near the top.
Avoiding the “Chosen One” Trap
Many beginners jump into futures trading and double their account in a week. Suddenly, they believe they’re market geniuses—destined for riches.
But markets humbly remind everyone who’s in charge.
If you lose your position? Don’t despair. Treat yourself as a learner—not a prodigy. Build knowledge gradually. As your understanding deepens, so will your returns.
👉 Learn proven strategies used by consistent crypto winners—not gamblers.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: What does "sell in May" mean in crypto?
A: It’s a seasonal strategy suggesting traders reduce exposure in May due to historically weaker summer performance, allowing them to re-enter during better conditions later in the year.
Q: Is Ethereum still a good long-term investment?
A: Despite short-term pressures, Ethereum’s ecosystem remains the strongest in DeFi and NFTs. Long-term value depends on adoption, scalability upgrades, and regulatory clarity.
Q: Can old PoW coins rally again?
A: Yes—especially if supported by favorable legislation or mining incentives. Historical relevance combined with policy tailwinds can reignite interest.
Q: How much should I invest as a beginner?
A: Start small—only risk what you can afford to lose. Focus on learning first; profits follow understanding.
Q: Should I hold through bear markets?
A: Holding core assets like BTC and ETH through downturns has historically paid off—but only if you avoid leverage and emotional decisions.
Q: What’s more important: timing or patience?
A: Patience wins over perfect timing. Consistent participation beats trying to predict every peak and trough.
By aligning your strategy with market cycles, respecting regulatory trends, and maintaining disciplined risk management, earning your first meaningful crypto profit becomes not just possible—but probable—within a few well-navigated years.