The approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on January 10, 2024—beginning trading the next day—marked a pivotal moment in the evolution of digital asset investment. This breakthrough has triggered a wave of new exchange-traded fund (ETF) applications across a broad spectrum of cryptocurrencies, from major altcoins to emerging layer-1 networks. As institutional interest grows and regulatory clarity slowly emerges, investors are closely watching which crypto ETFs might gain approval in 2025.
This article explores the most anticipated cryptocurrency ETF applications currently under SEC review, analyzes their approval probabilities based on market sentiment and regulatory progress, and examines how these developments could shape the broader crypto market landscape.
Solana (SOL) ETF: Leading the Charge with 99% Approval Odds
Solana has emerged as the frontrunner in the race for the next spot ETF approval. On June 28, REX Shares announced the upcoming launch of the “REX-Osprey SOL+Staking ETF,” positioning it as the first U.S.-based staking-enabled crypto ETF. Designed to track Solana’s price performance while generating yield through on-chain staking, this product represents an innovative step forward in crypto investment vehicles.
Multiple firms have entered the Solana ETF arena. In late June, Invesco Ltd. and Galaxy Digital LP jointly filed for the Invesco Galaxy Solana ETF (ticker: QSOL), set to trade on Cboe BZX. The fund would be managed by Invesco Capital Management, with Coinbase Custody serving as the digital asset custodian and Galaxy responsible for token acquisition.
Regulatory signals suggest momentum is building. The SEC began reviewing Grayscale’s Solana Trust 19b-4 filing on February 12, 2025, with a potential final decision deadline as late as October 10, 2025—mirroring the Bitcoin ETF approval timeline. Recent requests for S-1 updates from issuers further indicate that approval could be imminent.
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Market sentiment strongly supports approval: Polymarket forecasts a 99% probability of a Solana spot ETF being greenlit this year. Analysts like Eric Balchunas of Bloomberg believe SOL could lead what some are calling the "altcoin ETF summer."
XRP ETF: Legal Clarity Fuels 85% Approval Chances
XRP is another top contender, with a current Polymarket-predicted approval likelihood of 85%. The legal landscape shifted significantly after Ripple withdrew its lawsuit against the SEC, removing a major regulatory overhang.
While U.S.-based spot ETFs remain pending, international markets have already moved forward:
- Hashdex launched the world’s first XRP-linked spot ETF (XRPH11) on Brazil’s B3 exchange in April 2025.
- Purpose Investments Inc. and 3iQ both launched XRP ETFs (XRPP and XRPQ) on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX), offering direct exposure to XRP with zero management fees for the first six months.
In the U.S., ProShares launched four XRP futures-based ETFs in January 2025, including leveraged and inverse products. Meanwhile, Grayscale, Bitwise, 21Shares, and WisdomTree have all submitted spot XRP ETF applications.
Nate Geraci, CEO of ETF Store, stated that the legal resolution paves the way not only for XRP ETFs but potentially for BlackRock’s entry into this space.
BNB ETF: VanEck Bets on Binance’s Native Token
VanEck officially registered a BNB ETF in Delaware on April 2, 2025, followed by an S-1 filing on May 5. While no official approval probability is available yet, speculation is growing around BNB’s potential inclusion in national digital asset reserves—a concept reportedly advocated by former Binance CEO CZ to multiple governments.
Though regulatory scrutiny around Binance remains a concern, VanEck’s move signals confidence in BNB’s long-term utility and compliance trajectory. If approved, the BNB ETF could open institutional access to one of the most widely used exchange tokens in the crypto ecosystem.
SUI ETF: Innovation Meets Institutional Access
21Shares filed for a SUI spot ETF on May 27, aiming to list on Nasdaq. The fund would hold physical SUI tokens, valued daily using CF Benchmarks’ USD reference rate, and be custodied by BitGo and Coinbase. With no leverage or derivatives involved, it offers a transparent path for traditional investors to gain exposure to this high-performance Layer-1 blockchain.
Nasdaq formally submitted the 19b-4 application to the SEC on June 11, initiating the review process. James Seyffart of Bloomberg predicts a 60% chance of approval in 2025.
Notably, 21Shares already offers Sui ETPs on European exchanges (Euronext Paris and Amsterdam), which have seen significant inflows—suggesting strong underlying demand.
DOT, AVAX, ADA: High-Probability Contenders at 90%
Polkadot (DOT), Avalanche (AVAX), and Cardano (ADA) all share a 90% predicted approval rate according to Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart.
All three have active applications backed by major players:
- DOT: 21Shares’ Polkadot ETF application was submitted via Nasdaq; SEC review extended to July 26, 2025.
- AVAX: VanEck and Grayscale both pursuing listings; Nasdaq filed Grayscale’s 19b-4.
- ADA: Grayscale leads with the first-ever ADA spot ETF proposal; SEC delayed decision in March.
These established Layer-1 platforms offer robust ecosystems and clear governance models—factors that may favor regulatory acceptance.
Other Notable Applications
| Crypto | Filing Entity | Status | Approval Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Litecoin (LTC) | Grayscale, Canary Capital | SEC postponed decision; Polymarket: 82% | |
| Dogecoin (DOGE) | Grayscale, Bitwise, 21Shares | Multiple filings; Bitwise updated S-1 for “in-kind” creation; Polymarket: 75% | |
| Hedera (HBAR) | Canary Capital | SEC delayed decision; Seyffart: 90% | |
| SEI | Canary Capital | Includes staking component; under review | |
| TRON (TRX) | Canary Capital | Filed April 2025; claimed SEC acknowledgment by Justin Sun | |
| NEAR | Bitwise | Registered in Delaware; custodian confirmed | |
| Aptos (APT) | Bitwise | S-1 filed; revision submitted June 26 | |
| Axelar (AXL) | Canary Capital | S-1 filed March 6 | |
| PENGU | Canary Capital | 19b-4 filed June 26; Seyffart: 50% | |
| TRUMP | REX | Political theme; low regulatory likelihood |
Will Altcoin ETFs Spark a “Meme Season” or Broader Bull Run?
The surge in ETF applications is more than just regulatory paperwork—it's shaping market psychology. Historically, anticipation of ETF approvals has driven investor demand and price appreciation for underlying assets.
Eric Balchunas coined the term “altcoin ETF summer,” suggesting that after Bitcoin and Ethereum, regulators may accelerate approvals for other credible projects. Michael van de Poppe, a prominent market analyst, believes we're on the cusp of the largest bull market in crypto history, fueled by post-bear-market expansion and institutional adoption.
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An influx of compliant ETF products could significantly boost liquidity, reduce volatility, and attract retirement funds, endowments, and retail investors alike.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: What is a cryptocurrency spot ETF?
A: A spot ETF directly holds the underlying cryptocurrency (e.g., BTC, SOL) rather than futures contracts or derivatives. It provides investors with direct exposure to price movements without requiring them to manage private keys.
Q: Why does staking matter in an ETF?
A: Staking-enabled ETFs generate yield by participating in network validation. This adds income potential beyond capital appreciation, making such funds more attractive to long-term investors.
Q: How do ETF approvals affect crypto prices?
A: Approval expectations often drive pre-launch buying pressure. Once live, ETFs increase accessibility and legitimacy, drawing in institutional capital and expanding market depth.
Q: Which crypto is most likely to get an ETF after Bitcoin?
A: Solana (SOL) is currently favored due to strong ecosystem growth and high approval odds (~99%). However, Ethereum remains a benchmark despite its own ETF already being approved.
Q: Are meme coins like DOGE or PENGU likely to get approved?
A: DOGE has a solid chance (~75%) due to brand recognition and multiple filings. PENGU faces steeper hurdles given its speculative nature and lack of fundamental utility.
Q: Can I invest in these ETFs now?
A: Most are still pending SEC approval. However, some XRP and SUI ETPs are already available on non-U.S. exchanges like TSX and Euronext.
The pipeline of cryptocurrency ETF applications in 2025 reflects growing confidence in digital assets as investable classes. With Solana leading the pack and major altcoins like XRP, DOT, AVAX, and ADA close behind, the coming months could redefine how investors access blockchain innovation.