Bitcoin is setting the stage for a potentially historic 2025, with growing market sentiment pointing toward a breakout above its previous all-time high (ATH) of $108,230. According to data from prediction markets and on-chain metrics, momentum is building for a significant rally—possibly as early as the first half of the year. While technical indicators and investor positioning suggest strong bullish potential, traders should remain mindful of key support levels and macro-level risks.
This article explores the latest price dynamics, analyzes forecasts from Polymarket and Deribit, and outlines what investors should watch in Q1 and beyond.
👉 Discover how market sentiment is shaping Bitcoin’s 2025 trajectory
Bitcoin’s Technical Outlook: Bullish Structure Intact
Bitcoin began 2025 with a decisive rebound off the 50-period exponential moving average (EMA) on the daily chart, reclaiming critical ground near $96,000. This recovery followed a sharp correction in late December 2024, which briefly rattled investor confidence but ultimately failed to break the underlying bullish structure.
Currently, the immediate support zone at **$91,500** is under close observation. A sustained drop below this level could trigger a further decline toward $87,000—or potentially test $80,000—but such a move wouldn’t necessarily invalidate the broader uptrend. In fact, many analysts view dips into the $80,000–$87,000 range as healthy corrections within a maturing bull cycle.
On the upside, reclaiming the **psychological $100,000** resistance—last held on December 19, 2024—is seen as a pivotal catalyst. A decisive close above this level could accelerate momentum, paving the way for a run toward $103,000 and eventually surpassing the prior ATH.
Market volume remains supportive despite seasonal lulls during the holiday period. Additionally, the MACD indicator is showing signs of a bullish crossover, with the signal line nearing positive territory—an early sign of renewed upward momentum.
However, caution flags exist. A notable bearish RSI divergence has formed between November 11, 2024, and current price action, suggesting that momentum may be weakening even as prices rise. This type of divergence has historically preceded short-term pullbacks, though it doesn’t negate longer-term bullish potential.
Historically, the first quarter following a Bitcoin halving event has been one of the strongest periods for price appreciation. With the last halving occurring in April 2024, Q1 2025 aligns with this favorable seasonal pattern—making it a critical window for trend confirmation.
Why Q1 2025 Matters
- Post-halving momentum: Historically, Bitcoin enters its strongest price phase 6–12 months after halving.
- Institutional inflows: Expected continued demand from spot ETFs could fuel upward pressure.
- Macro backdrop: Potential rate cuts in major economies may boost risk asset appetite.
Polymarket Predictions: 79% Chance of ATH Break by June 2025
Prediction markets offer a real-time pulse of crowd-sourced sentiment—and Polymarket is flashing strong bullish signals for Bitcoin in 2025.
According to Polymarket’s “Bitcoin All-Time High by June 30?” event, there is currently a 79% probability that Bitcoin will exceed its previous high of $108,230 before June 30, 2025. The resolution criteria specify that any one-minute candle on the BTC/USDT pair (Binance) trading above $108,230 will settle the market as “yes.”
While this figure reflects strong optimism, it's important to note that only about $75,000 in trading volume backs this probability. This relatively low liquidity means the market may be more speculative than data-driven and should be interpreted with caution.
A more robust prediction comes from another Polymarket event: “What price will Bitcoin hit by March 31?” Here, the data shows:
- 65% chance Bitcoin reaches $110,000 by end-Q1
- 80% chance of a dip to $90,000
- Only 6% chance Bitcoin hits $200,000 by March 31—a distant dream for now
- Just 15% chance of falling to $80,000
With over $2.57 million in open bets, this market carries significantly more weight and suggests traders expect both volatility and upside in early 2025.
👉 See how traders are positioning for Bitcoin’s next big move
Deribit Options Data: Bulls Betting Big on $120K–$300K by Mid-2025
While prediction markets gauge sentiment, Deribit’s options market provides deeper insight into institutional and sophisticated retail positioning.
For the June 27, 2025 expiry, open interest reveals where investors are placing their largest bets. The “Open Interest by Strike Price” chart highlights:
- $120,000**: Over **$245 million in call options—indicating strong conviction in a post-ATH rally
- Significant call volume also at $130K**, **$140K, $180K**, and **$200K
- A bold $100 million** in calls at **$300,000, reflecting extreme bullish outliers
These figures suggest that while most expect moderate gains, a growing cohort anticipates exponential upside—possibly driven by macro tailwinds or unforeseen adoption catalysts.
On the bearish side, put options are concentrated far below current levels—between $45,000 and $55,000—indicating that bears aren’t betting on near-term collapse but are instead hedging against long-term downside.
The max pain price—the strike at which option sellers profit most—is set at $85,000, just above key technical support. This implies that if Bitcoin trades near this level at expiry, it would cause maximum losses for option buyers.
With a total notional value of $2.6 billion across nearly 27,000 open contracts, and 72% of positions being calls, Deribit data underscores a strongly bullish bias heading into mid-2025.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: What is Bitcoin’s current all-time high?
A: Bitcoin’s all-time high is $108,230, reached in late 2024 before a correction phase began.
Q: When is Bitcoin expected to surpass its ATH in 2025?
A: According to Polymarket, there's a 79% chance Bitcoin will exceed its ATH by June 30, 2025. Deribit data supports this timeline with heavy call positioning for mid-2025.
Q: What technical levels should I watch in early 2025?
A: Key levels include $91,500 (critical support), $100,000 (psychological resistance), and $103,000 (next target if momentum builds).
Q: Is the rally sustainable if RSI shows bearish divergence?
A: While bearish RSI divergence can signal short-term exhaustion, it doesn’t negate long-term trends—especially in strong bull markets where prices can remain elevated despite overbought conditions.
Q: How reliable are Polymarket predictions?
A: Polymarket reflects crowd sentiment but can lack depth due to low trading volume. Use it as a sentiment gauge—not a standalone trading signal.
Q: What does Deribit’s max pain price tell us?
A: The max pain price of $85,000 suggests market makers are positioned to benefit if Bitcoin trades near that level at expiry—potentially acting as a magnet for price action.
Final Thoughts: A Pivotal Year Ahead
Bitcoin’s path in 2025 hinges on three core factors: technical follow-through in Q1, sustained institutional demand via ETFs and derivatives, and broader macroeconomic conditions.
While prediction platforms like Polymarket highlight bullish sentiment, it’s Deribit’s deep options market that offers more credible evidence of investor conviction—particularly with over $245 million in calls at $120K and growing interest in even higher targets.
👉 Stay ahead of the curve with real-time market intelligence
The convergence of post-halving cycles, increasing adoption, and strong derivative positioning paints an optimistic picture. However, traders must remain disciplined—watching support levels closely and managing risk amid inevitable volatility.
For those tracking Bitcoin’s evolution, the first half of 2025 could deliver one of the most consequential chapters in its history.
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