The crypto market is showing strong early signs of an impending altseason, with Ethereum (ETH) outpacing Bitcoin (BTC) in performance and capital rotation favoring alternative cryptocurrencies. As Bitcoin’s dominance begins to waver, technical indicators and market sentiment point toward a potential shift in momentum—opening the door for altcoins to take center stage in the next phase of the bull cycle.
Ethereum Gains Momentum Against Bitcoin
Over the past 90 days, Ethereum has surged nearly 48%, significantly outperforming Bitcoin’s 31% gain. This divergence marks a pivotal moment in market dynamics, as ETH’s strength against BTC often precedes broader altcoin rallies. At the time of writing, one ETH is valued at 0.02549 BTC—44% higher than its year-to-date low of 0.01766 BTC recorded on April 22.
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A key resistance level sits at 0.02606 BTC, with the next major target at 0.03020 BTC—a level tied to historical lows from December 2020 and March 2021. If Ethereum breaks through these thresholds, it could accelerate investor confidence and trigger wider capital inflows into altcoins.
On the technical front, the weekly ETH/BTC chart reveals a positive MACD crossover, signaling bullish momentum. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 46—indicating weakening bearish pressure and room for further upside. These signals collectively suggest that Ethereum is laying the groundwork for a sustained rally.
Historically, when Ethereum strengthens against Bitcoin, it acts as a precursor to an altseason. Investors often interpret this as a strategic window to accumulate high-potential altcoins before broader market participation surges.
Bitcoin Dominance Shows Signs of Reversal
Bitcoin’s market dominance has long been a barometer for market cycles. A dominance level above 50% typically indicates a “Bitcoin season,” where BTC absorbs most of the capital inflow. Currently, BTC dominance is hovering just above 64%, but recent technical patterns suggest a potential downturn.
The weekly chart reveals a bearish double top formation—a classic reversal pattern—accompanied by a bearish RSI divergence. These signals imply that upward momentum is weakening, even as price tests resistance. If dominance breaks below the critical support trendline near 63.11%, it could initiate a drop toward 60.27% or even 55.36%.
Such a decline would free up substantial capital for rotation into altcoins, increasing the likelihood of an altseason. With Bitcoin’s price action showing signs of exhaustion above $100,000, investors may begin seeking higher returns elsewhere in the crypto ecosystem.
Altseason Index Rises Amid Growing Market Cap
The CoinMarketCap Altcoin Season Index has climbed to 32—up from 17 on May 30—reflecting increased strength in altcoins relative to Bitcoin. The index measures the performance of the top 100 altcoins over the past 90 days compared to BTC.
- Below 25: Strong Bitcoin season
- 25–50: Fading Bitcoin dominance
- Above 75: Full-blown altseason
While the index hasn’t yet reached the threshold for a confirmed altseason, its upward trajectory signals growing momentum. Notably, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies excluding Bitcoin has surpassed $1.22 trillion—a key psychological and technical milestone that underscores expanding investor interest in altcoins.
This capital expansion suggests that markets are maturing beyond Bitcoin-centric narratives, paving the way for sector-specific narratives like DeFi, AI-driven blockchains, and real-world asset tokenization to gain traction.
Veteran Analyst Warns of BTC Risk, Sees ETH Upside
Veteran trader Peter Brandt has recently raised concerns about Bitcoin’s price structure, noting similarities to the 2022 double top pattern that preceded a severe correction. With BTC facing increased volatility above $100,000, Brandt warns that history could repeat itself—potentially leading to a 75% retracement.
Conversely, Brandt has highlighted Ethereum’s breakout potential. On Tuesday, ETH closed at $2,816, breaking out of its sideways consolidation range. This move coincided with a close above the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at $2,746—calculated from the 52-week high of $4,107 to the YTD low of $1,385.
Additional bullish confirmation comes from the MACD indicator on the daily chart, which has generated a buy signal. Moreover, the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is approaching a golden cross with the 200-day EMA—a long-term bullish pattern often associated with sustained rallies.
Based on Fibonacci extensions, the next upside target for Ethereum lies at the 78.6% retracement level of $3,525—representing over 25% upside from current levels. Should ETH reach this target, it could act as a catalyst for broader altcoin strength.
However, a close below $2,746 could invalidate the bullish setup and open the door for a deeper correction toward $2,470—the vicinity of the 200-day EMA. Such a scenario would likely delay or dampen the onset of a full altseason.
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Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: What is an altcoin season?
A: An altcoin season refers to a period when alternative cryptocurrencies (altcoins) outperform Bitcoin in terms of price growth and market capitalization. It typically occurs after a Bitcoin-dominated rally phase.
Q: How can you tell if an altseason is starting?
A: Key indicators include declining Bitcoin dominance, Ethereum outperforming BTC, rising altcoin market cap, and technical breakouts in major altcoins. The Altcoin Season Index crossing above 25 also signals increasing odds.
Q: Why does Ethereum’s performance matter for altseason?
A: As the largest altcoin by market cap and ecosystem activity, Ethereum often leads broader altcoin rallies. Its strength against Bitcoin is historically one of the earliest signals of capital rotation into altcoins.
Q: What risks could delay an altseason?
A: A strong resurgence in Bitcoin’s price or dominance, macroeconomic uncertainty, regulatory crackdowns, or failure of major altcoins like ETH to sustain breakouts could all postpone or prevent an altseason.
Q: Is it too late to invest if an altseason is starting?
A: Not necessarily. Early-stage altseasons often allow time for strategic entry. However, thorough research and risk management are essential due to increased volatility.
Q: Can Bitcoin still rise during an altseason?
A: Yes. An altseason doesn’t mean Bitcoin stops rising—it means altcoins grow faster. Both can appreciate simultaneously, but capital flow shifts toward higher-growth opportunities in the altcoin space.
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