Ethereum (ETH) has recently been trading in a downward trend after failing once again to break past the critical $2,000 resistance level on the daily chart. While short-term price action appears bearish, a historically reliable technical indicator is now flashing a compelling buy signal—suggesting a potential reversal could be on the horizon. According to prominent crypto analyst Joe McCann, Ethereum has triggered a Tom Demark 9 (TD9) buy signal on the daily timeframe, which has demonstrated a remarkable 78% accuracy rate in predicting bullish moves over the past several years.
This development has caught the attention of traders and analysts alike, especially given the TD9 indicator’s strong track record in identifying high-probability trend reversals. In this analysis, we’ll explore the mechanics of the TD9 signal, assess its historical performance, examine key price targets, and evaluate how upcoming macroeconomic events—like the Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting—could influence ETH’s trajectory.
Understanding the TD9 Buy Signal for Ethereum
The TD9 indicator, developed by technical analyst Tom DeMark, is designed to identify potential exhaustion points in price trends—essentially signaling when an asset may be oversold or overbought. Similar in concept to the Relative Strength Index (RSI), TD9 focuses on sequential price patterns to detect when momentum is likely to shift.
Joe McCann recently highlighted on social media that ETH/USD has generated a fresh TD9 buy signal following an 8.7% pullback from recent highs. Historically, such signals have proven highly effective for Ethereum. According to McCann’s data analysis, TD9 buy signals have led to successful price increases in approximately 78% of cases, with an average 7-day return of +2.65% and a median gain nearing 5%.
👉 Discover how top traders use technical signals to time their entries
This statistical edge makes the current setup particularly compelling for both short-term traders and longer-term investors looking for favorable risk-reward opportunities.
Key Historical Price Targets
Based on previous patterns following TD9 buy signals, several price levels stand out as potential upside targets:
- $1,933: The opening price of July, acting as immediate resistance.
- $2,031: The bear market rally high from August 2022.
- $2,142: Ethereum’s all-time peak prior to the 2021 bull run climax.
Reclaiming $2,000 could act as a psychological catalyst, potentially accelerating momentum toward higher targets if broader market sentiment improves.
Deep Dive: Historical Performance of TD9 Signals
To better understand the reliability of this signal, McCann analyzed historical ETH price behavior after each TD9 buy trigger since 2018. The results reveal a strong bias toward positive returns in the short term.
- 7 days post-signal: 78% win rate | Avg. return: +2.65% | Median: ~5%
- 14 days post-signal: Win rate drops to 55.5% | Avg. return: +3.8% | Median: 5.7%
- 30 days post-signal: 63% success rate | Avg. return: +6.9% | Median: 3.8%
Notably, when focusing specifically on market conditions similar to those seen in 2023, McCann narrowed his analysis to data from 2019—a period marked by consolidation and gradual recovery following a prolonged bear market. During that year alone, the TD9 buy signal achieved an impressive 90% win rate, with average returns exceeding +7% within two weeks.
“If we focus on 2019—a year with a market cycle highly comparable to 2023—Ethereum’s TD9 buy signals achieved nearly a 90% success rate and delivered average gains over +7%.”
This suggests that during transitional market phases, the TD9 indicator may offer even greater predictive power than usual.
Not Every Signal Succeeds: Past Failures to Consider
Despite its strong overall performance, the TD9 model is not infallible. There have been notable instances where buy signals preceded significant downside moves.
For example:
- On March 13, 2018, ETH dropped 19.3% within seven days and plunged 34.8% over the next two weeks.
- Another false signal occurred on May 8, 2018, with ETH falling 22.1% in seven days and 26.7% over 14 days.
These examples underscore the importance of combining technical indicators with broader market context and risk management strategies.
Conversely, some of the most powerful rallies in Ethereum’s history were preceded by TD9 buy signals:
- On December 10, 2018, ETH initially rose 3.7% in seven days but surged 53% in 14 days and 64.5% within 30 days.
- More recently, on March 11, 2023, a TD9 signal was followed by an 18.8% gain in one week and a 29.9% increase over the next month.
These cases illustrate that while not every signal leads to immediate gains, many have marked the beginning of sustained upward momentum.
Upcoming Catalyst: The FOMC Meeting Impact
While technical indicators like TD9 provide valuable insights, external macroeconomic forces can significantly influence cryptocurrency markets. One such event is the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, scheduled for July 26.
Current market pricing indicates a 98.9% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike, but the bigger question remains: Will this be the final hike of the cycle?
Jerome Powell’s commentary during the post-meeting press conference could either support risk assets like ETH—or trigger another wave of sell-offs if hawkish tones persist.
Joe McCann captured the sentiment well:
“July 26 marks the Fed’s latest meeting, with Jerome Powell expected to raise rates by 25 basis points. Will Powell crash the party for ETH bulls during his press conference?”
A dovish pivot or hints at a pause could provide strong tailwinds for Ethereum and the broader crypto market.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
What is the TD9 indicator?
The TD9 is a technical analysis tool developed by Tom DeMark that identifies potential trend exhaustion points by analyzing sequential price patterns. It helps traders spot possible reversal zones when an asset is oversold (buy signal) or overbought (sell signal).
How accurate is the TD9 buy signal for Ethereum?
Historical data shows a 78% win rate for TD9 buy signals on Ethereum since 2018, with an average 7-day return of +2.65%. Accuracy improves to nearly 90% when analyzing similar market cycles like 2019 vs. 2023.
What are the key price targets if the signal succeeds?
Major resistance levels to watch include $1,933** (July open), **$2,031 (August 2022 high), and **$2,142** (pre-2021 peak). A breakout above $2,000 could accelerate upward momentum.
Can external factors override technical signals?
Yes. Events like Federal Reserve decisions, regulatory news, or global economic shifts can override technical setups. The upcoming FOMC meeting is a prime example of a macro risk that could impact ETH regardless of internal technical strength.
Should I trade based solely on TD9 signals?
While powerful, no single indicator should be used in isolation. Combine TD9 signals with volume analysis, macro trends, support/resistance levels, and proper risk management for optimal results.
👉 Learn how professional traders combine technical signals with real-time data
Final Thoughts: A High-Probability Opportunity?
At the time of writing, Ethereum trades around $1,859, just below key resistance zones and within striking distance of major targets if bullish momentum resumes. The confluence of a statistically strong TD9 buy signal and a potentially dovish Fed outcome creates a favorable setup—but caution remains warranted.
Traders should monitor price action closely over the next few days, especially following the FOMC decision. A close above $1,950 could confirm bullish continuation, while failure to hold above $1,800 might suggest further consolidation.
Whether you're aiming for short-term gains or positioning for a broader recovery, understanding high-probability indicators like TD9 can provide a strategic edge in volatile markets.
👉 Start applying advanced technical analysis tools in real time